Eric Writes: Millennials in 2016

What is the millennial role in 2016? Here, I look into it.

NOTE: I first wrote this in February/early March, so some of this information is outdated. However, I think the matter of millennial voters are extremely important, so I've left most of this largely unchanged. As such, it doesn't feature anything about Hillary Clinton's email scandals, Bernie Sanders' reluctance to leave the race, or Donald Trump's most recent comments.

Prelude to an Election

A Gallup poll calls Barack Obama’s presidency as the most divisive in the past 60 years, outranking George W. Bush.

With controversial candidates like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the heated 2016 election primaries have been called the most divisive since 2012, according to the Washington Post. The Nation website calls 2016 “the most important election of our lives.”

With such an intense election, the Boston Globe points out how much every vote counts, as evidenced by Bernie Sanders’ win in Methuen, Massachusetts by one vote.

There is one group that both sides see as crucial to their chances in the election: the millennial generation.

Millennials consist of people born between the 1980’s and late 1990’s. Voters aged 18 to 29 make up this group. They represent a younger, more diverse and secular crowd of voters that both sides are eager to attract.

Where Millennials Stand

For the most part, millennials don’t tend to actively associate with Republicans or Democrats, according to a Rock the Vote/USA Today Poll. Vox.com suggested that Millennials lack the consistent political views of older and more experienced voters.

Generally, millennials tend to be more conservative on economic issues than liberal.

There are two areas millennials focus on most when it comes to the economy. The chief issue concerns job security and minimum wage. By a close second, reduced student debt and college payments are also major topics of concern. Millennials have had to deal with far more student debt and are more likely to be poor than other age groups.

The ratio changes when it comes to social and cultural issues. Here, millennials tend to lean more liberal (42%) than conservative (32%). A majority or near majority (42%) support action on issues like race relations, stricter gun laws, climate change and gay rights.

What attracts millennial voters to candidates has also been a debated topic. This extends to the frontrunners, who are all struggling with millennial voters.

Critics think millennials respond more to candidates’ performances and actions rather than ideologies.

Bernie Sanders has seen the most success with millennials. His appeal appears to come from pledging tuition-free education for public universities. Others remain skeptical, though. Critics point out that Sanders’ proposals dismiss the significance of progressive change and bureaucracies.

On the other side, Donald Trump has had mixed results gaining millennial voters. While he has support from 26% of millennial Republicans and Independents, this is less than the 34% of general GOP voters. Primary data from eight states show first place wins in four and second place in three amongst millennials. While supporters consider his rhetoric a part of his appeal, some critics see it the other way. Politico suggests some supporters are less attracted to what he says as opposed to how he says it.

By contrast, Sanders’ Democratic rival Hillary Clinton is not seeing the same results. Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum thinks this is due to voters’ experience (or lack of) with her. Drum names Clinton’s own lack of directness as a reason voters regard her with suspicion. At the same time, Drum notes that Clinton has dealt with GOP-backed scandals since the 90’s. While past voters might be more understanding, he doubts new voters less familiar will be as sympathetic.

Millennial Turnouts

The biggest problem when it comes to millennials is not where they stand, but how to bring them in.

Millennial voting numbers have dropped with each election since 1988. The 2014 Midterms saw the lowest millennial turnout yet. Of a possible 46 million, 10 million (21.6%) actually voted.

Predictions for this election are less promising. In the USA Today/Rock the Vote poll, 60% said they would vote in the election. A third of Republicans and 40% of Democrats said they would vote in the primaries.

CNN went to the College of Charleston, South Carolina and asked students to describe the 2016 election in one word. “Worried,” “embarrassing,” and “divided,” were some of the answers they received.

There could be more than one reason for this. Millennials have faced major uphill economic struggles through the Obama presidency. Student debt has increased and colleges have become less affordable in this time. While Democratic candidates have offered solutions, Republicans have not been sympathetic.

Another factor here is the Republican party’s reliance on older, white voters. 52 to 70 year-olds tie millennials as the largest groups of voters in 2016. Republicans stand to benefit from low millennial turnouts in local elections.

But another reason may not be so pessimistic. 55% believe there are better alternatives than voting. Where some see an apathetic group of youngsters, others see potential activists.

Harvard Institute of Politics Director John Volpe sees it this way. “Young people still care about our country. But we will likely see more volunteerism than voting in 2014.”

Some believe that millennials would be able to influence others’ votes through social media. Nick Brennan, CEO of Watch Social Media, thinks so. “In general, the 30 to 49-year-old age group only trails 18-to-29-year-olds on major social network usage by a few points per network. What this means is that the millennial group has a great capacity to influence the demographic just a tad older than them – who vote in larger numbers.”

Summation

Millennials are a major source of votes for candidates this election season. While opinionated, they don’t align consistently with either party, forcing parties and candidates to fight harder for votes. Low voter turnouts from millennials increases demand for each vote.

Sources & References

Eric Writes

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Millennials in 2016

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